First Nations Demographic Analysis & Population Projections

In the next decade some of the most interesting and pressing questions surrounding First Nations resource tenure and the development of natural resources will be answered right here in northwest BC. SNCIRE suggests that an underpinning of a successful Treaty negotiation is to ensure there is a good understanding of the economic potential and social impacts of the resources that will come under development in northwest BC. This will allow all parties to investigate opportunities for First Nations with respect to that resource development.

SNCIRE has access to an independently developed and exclusive population projection model designed specifically for Canada's First Nations. The first of its kind, it produces stochastic forecasts inclusive of the relevant legislative mechanisms important for forecasting Canada's First Nations populations. This model will allow us to estimate many relevant future demographic rates for affected First Nations including: the labour supply, dependency ratio, childcare needs, and educational enrolment. Though the model was developed to include specific considerations for First Nations populations, it is also capable of projection of non-First Nation populations.

The model can be used to compare different citizenship rules for First Nations, to do projections and determine when the last person of a specific First Nation will be born under current rules, and possibly most importantly, to project populations inclusive of the development of nearby natural resources

Benefits & Applications
The applications for demographic analyses and population projections continues to expand as users find new and innovative uses for the projection data. In our experience, users have applied the projection data to:

• Estimate future school enrollment, class sizes, and educational demand
• Inform educational funding negotiations
• Develop a baseline of their community's demographics
• Inform the development of citizenship laws
• Develop long-run community plans
• Estimate future infrastructure demands
• Estimate the available labour force
• Determine the growth trajectory of First Nations nationally
• Estimate the impacts of Bill C-31 or Bill C-3 on membership
• Substantiate general funding negotiations